Week 9 Picks: Running Back

All of the conditions are right for week 9 to be a breakout game for Mark Ingram. The Saints are 8 point home favorites coming off a monster week 8. The dreadful Titans secondary should allow for Drew Brees to get the Saints up early, paving the way for a positive game script for Ingram. Ingram ranks 11th at the running back position points per snap with .44, and has seen no fewer than 15 touches, which came in a dominating win over the Colts. In cases where Ingram lost touches, many were taken by Khiry Robinson, who is out for the season with a broken leg. Robinson took 4 TDs from Ingram, but now those goal line carries will belong to Ingram. With Robinson out, I expect Ingram to outperform his price, which will rise in weeks to come. There is a perception that Tennessee has a decent run defense, but when you give up 6.1 YPC to old man Frank Gore, I’m not buying it. Ownership should not be an issue based on where he is priced. Many players like to pay top dollar, or punt the position. Take advantage of this opportunity while it’s available.

“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:

Langford was the only Chicago running back to receive touches after Matt Forte went down to injury. Monday’s matchup at San Diego is tied for the highest total of the week at 52, leaving a lot of points to be scored against a San Diego defense that continuously gets gashed in the run game. Offenses particularly attack the Chargers D with rushes up the middle, gaining 5.7 YPC. Pro Football Focus individually gives each starter in the front 7 a negative grade against the run. Though the sample size is small, Langford is averaging 4 YPC on runs up the middle this season. The film shows Langford runs hard and fails to go down at first contact. He is also expected to see the majority of passing down and goal line snaps. Langford should see no fewer than 15 touches and easily exceed his value.

If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:

Matt Jones burst on to the NFL scene with a week 2 line of 19 carries for 123 yards and 2 scores. Since then, he has struggled in a crowded backfield so his price has drastically fallen. His snap % also took a shot until week 7, where he played 70% of snaps. The ‘Skins were playing catch up, so Jones didn’t see a lot of work, rushing for 29 yards, and 22 more through the air. To compete with the Patriots, they must take the air out of the ball (pun intended) and pound the ball. Jay Gruden announced Jones will Split the backfield work with Alfred Morris, but Jones has outplayed Morris thus far. When teams stay committed to the run against the patriots, they see success. 5 of 6 opponents who have attempted over 20 rushes, have exceeded 100 yards on the ground. Tamper your expectations with Jones, but at such a cheap price, you don’t need much to pay off his salary, and he has big play potential.

“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street.  Stay away this week:

Halfway through the season no one has underachieved more than Eddie Lacy, though he is still priced as a top tier running back. He was able to salvage a small amount of value by sneaking into the end zone Sunday against the best defense in the league. This could cause public perception to think Lacy is ready to produce at the level he should but I don’t see it happening again Sunday. Carolina’s defense seems to struggle against quick one cut running backs, who can rip off big plays, and Eddie Lacy does not fall into that category. Lacy is averaging less than 4 YPC and has only found the end zone twice this season. At his price tag, Lacy would need about 12 Fanduel points and 18 DK points to even be considered as a viable option in cash games. He has scored less than 10 points 3 times this season and his top score is only 18, providing a low floor and ceiling.