Week 9 Picks: Quarterbacks

If you’re paying up at QB, the only choice is Tom Brady. If you haven’t been on planet earth the past 8 weeks, Tom Brady is crushing NFL defenses at will. I try to be unbiased, and not look at narratives, but this “angry Tom Brady” one may be for real.

Statistically, he’s channeling the Tom of 2007. If you don’t remember, he threw 50 TDs that season. Brady is atop the league in yards per game, TDs thrown, QB Rating and 3rd in completion percentage.

Brady’s matchup is elite too. The Redskins are the 2nd worst in opponent +/-, according to Fantasy Labs. They are allowing an additional +4.1 DK points to QBs this season, and they get Tom Brady in week 9. I don’t see that number falling back down.

The part that I think will be the biggest contributor to Brady’s success this week, is how solid the Washington run defense ranks. The Redskins rank as the toughest defense to score fantasy points on when adjusted for strength of opponent, according to Fantasy Labs. For me this limits the Patriots ability to pound the ball on the ground and in similar run matchups this season (Bills and Jets) Tom Brady is averaging over 30 DK points.

I like him a lot in cash, but based on roster construction I like the idea of paying down this week. The real value for Brady is in tournaments this week. At his price, he is $1000 more than the 2nd highest priced QB, and much pricier than guys like Brees, Rivers, and Eli. These guys will see higher own %’s than normal based on week 8 performances alone. If we can get Brady in this elite matchup at a low owned %, you could be in a good spot on Monday night.

“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:

Ben Roethlisberger is a pretty solid play this week at home against the Raiders.

Le’veon Bell’s injury last week left season and daily owners alike in a sour mood Sunday afternoon. However, without Bell in the first two games of the season Roethlisberger averaged 27 DK points. I think this trend continues because the Raiders are a surprisingly stout rushing defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are 5th in DVOA. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This puts them in a fairer comparison that adjusts for strength of opponent. So, the Raiders are a top 5 unit in limiting RBs. This forces teams to attack the Raiders secondary. The Raiders allow the most passing attempts per game this season at over 44, and passing yards per game at 302.

The Steelers have an implied point total of 26, meaning they are expected to score 26, and facing this Oakland unit who has only allowed 3 rushing scores this season (2nd fewest), Ben stands a solid chance to throw a couple TDs. A safe state line projection could easily be 300+ yds and 2 TDs. At $6600 those 23 DK points would be more than enough.

Also consider: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers

For my money, Tyrod is the best play on the board. He comes in at near minimum salary at $5300. So, for that extra $300 over minimum salary you can roster Tyrod, instead of the 3rd string QB in Tennessee, which neither of us know his name. Just insane value. I don’t know why we have seen such a big drop in price. Taylor has exceeded value every week, and after a big initial jump in week 2, he has been below $6k every week. His production, however, has been at the level of a $7k QB.

I know recency bias from his injury means a lot of us have forgotten his early season heroics. But the Bills are coming off of a bye, with a healthy backfield and likely the return of the most talented Bills WR, Watkins who is hopeful to play. Tyrod will have a versatile set of weapons to deploy Sunday against the Dolphins. In the previous matchup this season we saw Taylor put up 24 DK points.

Some historical trends, courtesy of Fantasy Labs, show that a price reduction and a projected +/- greater than 2 add on average 5 fantasy points. Interpreting that, when a player’s salary has dropped $500 or more in the past month, historical stats point to that QB performing 2.6 fantasy points greater than their expected value (16 pts). The other of projected +/- greater than 2, is a trend that shows when a QB is projected to score more than 2 points above expected value (16), they are scoring over 2.3 more fantasy points. This doesn’t mean that he’s a lock for 20 DK points, but this sample size of 390 QBs, shows that Taylor is in a great spot.

Taylor is the best play in cash for me this week. I like the flexibility he opens up with his pricing, and being so cheap means we only need 16 pts to reach value.Taylor has a high floor because he’s going to chip in 3-5 pts rushing, with upside for more if he scampers in. I think he is in play in tournaments this week as well, recency bias will push people in other directions in the middle.

Also consider: Marcus Mariota

“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street.  Stay away this week:

The easy answer here is don’t play Blaine Gabbert, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or any other bad NFL QB. And I’ll admit I have some hesitancy in my decision here, but I’m not buying Luck this week.

At $7k he’s priced as the 5th highest. I don’t expect the 5th best fantasy output at QB, or expect him to get to those 21 DK points needed for value. Mostly for the same reasons I recommended the Broncos against Rodgers last week. These guys are good, great, fantastic, elite, whatever. Just the BEST.

I don’t know if I buy Luck is 100% healthy. And I don’t know that I’m still buying all the hype he was given coming out of Stanford. Last year was great statistically, but was due more to volume than anything else. Luck ranked 13th in QBR last season. Just behind NICK FOLES! This year 30th in QBR, JUST BEHIND NICK FREAKING FOLES!! I get it’s fantasy.We are more concerned with production than efficiency.

Luck, though, is priced as an elite option. In difficult matchups this season, (Buffalo, NYJ, and Carolina) Luck hasn’t cracked 20 DK points, averaging a measly 13.5 DK pts.

Luck has thrown multiple interceptions in all but one game this season. Denver is again the BEST secondary in the league. Elite corners to match up with Hilton and Mocrief, a strong pass rush, and a high blitz rate. The Broncos pressure the passer 35% of the time on drop backs(most in the league), and Luck is only completing 25% of his own passes under pressure for 30th in the NFL. (ESPN Stats & Information)

Don’t do it. Don’t play Luck.