There is a certain amount of risk that is required to be successful at DFS. One way to take on risk is through being contrarian. A contrarian play is one that goes against popular opinion, allowing you to gain a potential advantage by rostering a player at a low ownership percentage. This allows roster differentiation in high stakes, large field tournaments. Finding those diamonds in the rough could be the difference in an average finish, or bringing home the big bucks. Here are my top contrarian plays for week 7.
Ever since Ben Roethlisberger went down in a week 3 victory over the rams, The Steelers offense struggled mightily to push the ball down the field with Michael Vick under center. In the first 2 weeks, Pittsburgh had 8 pass plays of 25 yards or more. Since then, they have had only 6. One of those was an 88 yard pitch and catch from Landry Jones to Martavis Bryant. Although Bryant did most of the work on that score, on the stat sheet and on our lineup scores, Jones gets just as much credit. With playmakers like Bryant and Antonio Brown on the outside, Jones has the opportunity for high upside. Jones will be attacking a Chiefs secondary that has given up at least 249 yards and a touchdown in every game this season. If Jones can have similar success that other quarterbacks have had against Kansas City, he will reach value to make him a safe play in cash games, and a sneaky play in tournaments.
Other considerations: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater
Ameer Abdullah was set to bust on the scene and takeover the Lions lead back role from Joique Bell after an injury filled offseason. Through 6 games, Abdullah has dealt with poor performance and fumbling issues. The 1-5 start for the Lions has put them behind in every game thus far, which has led to passing situations, with the main beneficiary being Theo Riddick. Riddick has received a positive passing grade in each game so far from Pro Football Focus. In the last 4 games, Riddick seen his snap % increase each week, with Riddick playing 57% of snaps Sunday after Abdullah was benched after yet another fumble. Over that span Riddick has averaged 13.8 DK points per game, including a 21.3 point performance in week 5. Abdullah has only averaged 7.75 points per game during that stretch, but is till priced $600 more than Riddick. Riddick has been a model of consistency on a struggling Lions team, and I expect him to keep it up Sunday, at home, against Minnesota.
Other considerations: Latavius Murray, Duke Johnson Jr., Alfred Morris
When you think of a speedy, electric receiver on The Redskins, Desean Jackson would come to mind for most. For me, that man is Jamison Crowder. The Duke product has made the most of his opportunity with Jackson nursing a hamstring injury he suffered week 1. Since then Crowder has overtaken the starting slot receiving job, has seen an increase in snap % each week , and is second on the team in targets with 37.It is clear Crowder has gained the trust of Kirk Cousins and with Jordan Reed dealing with a plethora of injuries, Sunday could be a chance to get in the end zone for the first time. All 4 Tampa Bay corners grade negatively per Pro Football Focus. The secondary has been carved by average receiver’s allow stat lines of 4 catches-101 yards-1TD to Kendall Wright, 4-44-1 to Willie Snead, 6-58-0 to Cecil Shorts, 4-54-0 to Brenton Bersin (who?!) and 5-116-1 to Allen Hurns. Crowder looks like a threat to join that company Sunday.
Other considerations: Mike Wallace, Michael Floyd , Mike Evans
Antonio Gates should be the highest owned player for the entire slate this week, and rightfully so. In 5 games, The Raiders have allowed 30 catches, 380 yards, and 6 TDs to tight ends alone. Gates has gotten all the attention since his return from suspension, but Ladarius Green has continued to produce, under the radar. In the 2 games since Gates’ return, Green has ran 72 routes, racking up 8-85-1. Though his target rate has dipped, the Chargers have made it clear they intend to pass the ball, with a 65% pass rate on the season, 3rd highest in the NFL per sportingcharts.com. With Kenan Allen’s status in question, that potentially opens up over 25% of Phillip River’s targets. Rivers will get the ball to the open man, and so far that man has been tight ends against the Raiders. Green is risky for sure, but has excellent upside.
Other considerations: Zach Ertz, Tim Wright
