In an offense struggling for weapons due to injury, Gronk is once again healthy. With Legarrette Blount now out for the season, the Pats effective have no run game and will be forced to pass. In week 2 against Buffalo, NE took to the air 59 time to combat a strong run D. Gronk benefited for 7-113-1 on 13 targets. In week 7 the Pats attempted 54 passes against the Jets and Gronk had his best game of the season for 11-108-1 on 16 targets. Gronk leads the Patriots with 101 targets, owning 18% of target market share. This number should go up with Dion Lewis out and Julian Edelman questionable, as this pair combines for 27% of Patriot’s targets. As the offense gets more concentrated, it should be easier to determine where touches will go. Its clear Gronk will benefit from the Patriots current situation.
As I constantly reiterate, one of the biggest ways to succeed in DFS is to differentiate point chasing, from exploiting a good value. Though Julius Thomas is on a tear, scoring TDs in his last 4 games, he is in a prime spot to keep the streak going. Jacksonville passes the ball 63% of plays and the trio of Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas account for over 50% of Jags targets. Thomas missed the first 4 games to injury. In each game since week 6, he has at least 5 targets and as many as 13. With Desmond Trufant shutting down the left side, Thomas will get plenty of looks. In week 1, Josh Norman held Allen Robinson to 1 catch on 6 targets. Trufant is not as an elite talent as Norman, but if Robinson lines up across from Trufant, the targets should funnel Thomas’ way. At $4700, Thomas is in a prime spot to post huge numbers.
Clive Walford has quietly strung together solid back to back games for Oakland, entering a good spot against Green Bay. Over this 2 week span, Walford has out snapped fellow tight end Mychal Rivera 38-20 and 28-24. Last week, Walford was 2nd on the Raiders with 7 targets and saw 5 in week 13. On top of the recent general volume, Walford is 5th on the team in red zone targets, with 3 TDs on the season. Green Bay is vulnerable to the tight end. The Pack allow over 5 catches per game to opposing tight ends, at almost 11 YPC. Opposing tight ends have also scored 7 TDs this season. Keep an eye out on Walford as a sneaky contrarian play.
Delanie has been one of my favorite cash plays all season at tight end. His 6 catches per game on a PPR format have provided him a safe floor to get an edge in cash games. Unfortunately this week, I believe Walker gets Belichicked. Below are a few stat lines from key players against the Pats this season.
Deandre Hopkins: 3-52-0
Demaryius Thomas: 1-36-0
Jordan Reed: 3-18-1
Sammy Watkins: 3-39-0
Since Week 1, the Patriots have not allowed more than 56 yards to an opposing tight end. This is due in large part to linebacker Chandler Jones’ ability in coverage. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Walker’s worst game of the season on Sunday.
