Going back to the well this week with Cam, as he delivered and then some last week as our top option. I can’t take complete credit for the 40 DK point output, but I will say when we have recommended him, he’s surpassed 30 DK points. This week against Atlanta, Cam sits with an implied total of 27. That’s the second highest on the slate, just behind the Cardinals. Cam gets almost all of the red zone exposure, whether it is through the air or on the ground and the Falcons have been struggling as of late, losing 6 of 7. The matchup on the surface looks more difficult, but the Falcons haven’t faced an elite level QB outside of Drew Brees this season. But Cam isn’t a matchup play. You’re paying for Cam this week to provide you safety and security. His floor is probably the highest of any player in the league and will score us at least 12 in the passing game and 2-3 in the rushing game. The floor of around 14 DK points is as good as it gets. Cam has a high ceiling as well and I still believe it’s going to happen this year where Cam will score multiple rushing TDs. With that safety and upside, Cam is a solid play this week. I like him more in cash as I expect ownership numbers to be higher than normal with some point chasing in tournaments. I don’t hate the play, but I think in tournaments we can maybe differentiate and find a better value in a points per dollar perspective.
Russell Wilson is the easy chalk this week, coming in underpriced in one of, if not the best matchup for opposing QBs. Baltimore has been obliterated in the passing game this season, and I don’t think they turn it around this week. Raw numbers will point to solid performances in two of their last three, but that fails to account for opponent, taking on the terrible Rams and struggling Dolphins. Wilson has really emerged in the last 3 weeks averaging just over 32 DK points. I like the fact the Seahawks are on the road where Wilson has traditionally performed better. In all but 1 game on the road over the past two seasons Wilson has exceeded salary expectations. This comes from the defense playing better at home and getting out to a lead and feeding Marshawn Lynch. The spread is still bigger this week, and I don’t expect the Ravens to win, but I think it’ll be enough for Wilson to do some damage. Over his past three he is averaging 293 passing yards and 4 passing TDs. He got in last week for his first rushing TD of the season, and is averaging 9 carries for 38 yards per game. His floor is pretty high as well, what had limited most of our exposure to Wilson so far was his inability to push the number very high. Wilson has definitely done that the past 3 weeks and in a very solid matchup, I see little way Wilson fails to reach value or hit that 3x salary around 19 DK points.
Also consider: Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles
Most weeks this season, DK has had their QBs underpriced and allowed us to go cheap, and I don’t think this week is much different. To me the play this week is Jameis Winston. Winston has been surprisingly consistent this season, and twice flashed some really solid upside. We aren’t taking Winston this week though for past production, it’s purely matchup based against a putrid New Orleans group that gave up monster games to Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota. The Saints are giving up on average this season 301 yards passing and 2.91 TDs through the air. That’s unheard of. Winston in the second game of his career still managed to put up 19.6 DK points in the first meeting, and has seemingly taken some steps in the right direction since. The stat I heard recently from Matthew Berry of ESPN, is the Saints have allowed 299 fantasy points this season to QBs, the top fantasy performer, Brady, has scored 290. So, the Saints are giving up Brady like performances, to QBs not quite in the same tier. This game currently has the highest over/under at 50.5 and feels like a safe spot to get some cheap points. The Fantasy Labs opponent +/- of 8.7 is a crazy high number. The Saints on average when adjusting for opponent expectations are giving up over 8.7 DK points to QBs above their expected salary. That pretty easily puts Jameis in the 3x salary category and in a great position to exceed. Jameis will likely be locked in my cash lineups, and probably highly owned in tournaments. I don’t think he is a lock to crush value in the 5-6x range and with his likely high ownership percentage, I will probably limit tournament exposure this week.
Aaron Rodgers production this season has failed to meet our expectations and match the dominant output of seasons past. I think there are two reasons to this, one, the Jordy injury really impacted the whole offense more than we wanted to admit going in. Two, is the failure to establish any semblance of a run game this year. Lacy, whether injury or lack of ability hasn’t been good. Rodgers averages this season have dropped a few fantasy points and the overall Packers scoring is down. The Vegas line presents this matchup against the Cowboys as a pretty low scoring affair, and what typically made Aaron Rodgers feel safe was the constant high projected total. The 42.5 total is one of the lowest I’ve ever seen for a Packers game, and the Packers implied at 24.5 is a little worrisome if you need Rodgers to hit that 21 DK pts for value. The saving grace of DK scoring is the 3 point bonus for crossing the 300 yds passing threshold. For Rodgers, he’s only notched that number 3 times in 12 games. Last season he recorded 8 300 yard games. I don’t think Rodgers is going to tank your lineup, but I don’t think he provides much upside with his $7k sticker price. Rodgers against Dallas is a no go for me this week.
