Cam is the pretty clear top choice for me this week. Last time cam made this spot, he threw for 5 TDs in the first half. No promises this week, but this matchup is just as tasty. The Saints come in with the highest in opponent +/- from Fantasy Labs, allowing an additional 9.4 DK points to opposing QBs. In the last three matchups against the Saints, Eli Manning, Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer have combined to average over 29 DK points. I know we all agree Cam is probably a little bit better. This is a clear matchup play on the surface, but Cam has had success throughout his career against New Orleans. Cam has averaged 34 DK points in the past two meetings.
Cam’s greatest asset is his consistency. That consistency comes from his ability to produce points in the run and pass game. As noted in his previous write up he’s toting the rock on average 9 times a game for around 40 yards. Newton has 7 rushing scores this season, and gets a large share of all red zone carries. That makes him a very safe bet to score in some capacity anytime the Panthers enter the red zone. With the second highest implied point total on the slate, and Cam getting a large share of red zone opportunity, he’s a safe bet to reach value this week.
In this mid range I like Andy Dalton this week. Dalton, unlike Cam, didn’t meet expectations last time he made the list. However, I think he’s is in a pretty safe spot this week. The Bengals come in with the 4th highest implied points on the week 13 slate, so we know high totals have a correlation with high fantasy points. The Bengals are at a 23:12 passing to rushing TD ratio this season, so it’s safe to assume Dalton gets a couple easy scores. The blowout is less worrisome because Dalton’s success this season has less to do with his volume of passing and more so on his efficiency. Dalton is the 4th best in yards per attempt this season, with the 4th most TDs and the 3rd highest rating. Dalton has only missed value twice this season, and his most recent miss was much closer than it may have appeared. The only thing a little concerning with Dalton this week is Eifert’s status. Eifert has been a big red zone threat this season for the Bengals, and will definitely increase Dalton’s upside. I like Dalton in cash, and I’ll like him more in tournaments if Eifert is healthy.
Also consider: Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota.
I’ve always kind of liked Ryan Fitzpatrick because he was a Harvard alum. I think Fitz’s career has been a little underrated. He’s been a starter for 5 teams and had a solid 10 year career. Fitzpatrick has probably overcome some physical limitations with his brain power. To me, decision making with accuracy and speed are prob the two most important skills at the QB position. Fitzpatrick has been able to do those things and produce a nice career.
Moving on, in this range, the plays aren’t quite as strong this week as they have been. Draftkings pricing has gotten sharper, and overall the matchups just aren’t great. What I like about this spot is the relatively high over/under at 45. It has a close spread so I don’t expect the Jets to be forced to switch gears and run out the clock. Fitzpatrick has been quietly solid this season exceeding salary expectations in all but one game in which he only threw 5 passes. His Fantasy Labs projected +/- is over 4.4 this week. That says he is projected to outscore his salary expectations by more than 4.4, and their historical data tells us that other QBs in similar spots score about 3.7 DK points more in these scenarios. The Giants as matchup come in the bottom 10, ranking 28th in Football Outsiders DVOA pass ranks. Fitz is in a great spot and provides some of the best value this week.
I just put Palmer in the top slot last week, but he finds himself in a less than optimal matchup this week against the Rams. For the first time last week, Palmer failed to meet salary expectations, and I think it’s likely he keeps that streak rolling this week. The Rams still come in as the toughest matchup for opposing QBs.The Rams are still a solid defense and have an underrated secondary. They come in 3rd in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings overall and in passing defense. Fitzgerald’s production has dipped from early this season, and John Brown has been much quieter since coming back from injury. Outside of Palmer’s great performance in Cleveland earlier this season, he has been a little worse on the road. This is a divisional game, and historically that has proven to negatively impact QB fantasy performance. I don’t think this is a bounce back spot this week, and I think Palmer is one of the least likely guys to pay off his salary. Avoid Palmer at all costs.
