Week 13 Picks: Defense

On the surface, I think this is a pretty easy choice. The Bengals head to Cleveland to take on Austin Davis and the struggling Browns. Without Josh McCown, the Browns have really struggled to be effective offensively this season, scoring 10,14,9 and 10 points in his absence. I don’t expect much more than that this week. The Bengals come in with the lowest implied total this week at 17, and I think that is being pretty liberal. The Bengals are the biggest favorite of the week, and as we have talked about previously, that creates a scenario ripe for fantasy opportunity. The Browns have allowed the most sacks this season, allowing multiple in all but 1 game. The Browns have the 3rd most turnovers this season, and have gave it away in all but 1 game. This is promising, seeing as how the Bengals have the 6th most defensive interceptions this season. I don’t think this will be a pass happy game plan for Austin Davis, but I do believe they will have to throw this week to maintain some respectability. I like the safety they provide with the low implied points, and multiple ways the Browns have surrendered fantasy points this season. I think these guys are a decent cash play, and will probably have the possibility to achieve 4-5x salary with a poor blocking offensive line and very inexperienced QB at the helm.

This Jaguars unit on the road this week is in the most favorable matchup for a DST unit. The Titans are surrendering an additional 5.6 DK points above expectations this year and that number is even bigger at home, where they have allowed an average of 13 fantasy points in 6 games. The Jaguars are actually a solid defensive unit this season, especially in stopping the run, coming in as the 4th ranked run defense, according to Football Outsiders DVOA ranks. They’re passing defense slightly skews their overall achievement, but I think they will force Mariota into more passing situations this week. The Titans offensive line has allowed multiple sacks in 9 games this season, and at least 1 turnover each week. In 7 of their matchups this the Titans have turned the ball over multiple times. The Jaguars come in the top 10 in sacks and I think they will have plenty of opportunity this week. I like them as possibly my favorite play of the week, and will likely play them in cash. Without a ton of solid options at the top this weekend, I prefer to pay down.

I think the Redskins are an excellent budget option this week at home against the Cowboys. In Romo’s two games back he’s thrown 5 interceptions and hasn’t looked very effective. The Redskins are favored at home, and that is a great starting point when making a DST selection. The Cowboys come in with the 3rd lowest implied points this week. This is a very telling stat, as the bookmakers in Vegas don’t believe much in the Cowboys either. Dez hasn’t been the Dez we have been accustomed to, even if it is because of dealing with injuries. The running game has been decent at times, but inconsistent on the whole. Romo as mentioned has looked poor in his return, and their highly praised offensive line has allowed multiple sacks in each of the last 4, and in all but 3 this season. Those are easy points, and with the Redskins being 7th in total takeaways, I like their opportunity to score some points. I like the Redskins in tournaments this week to pretty easily meet value, with some solid upside. I believe most players will pick a defense last, and that usually means it is one of the top 6-7 priced units, or they go all the way down to the minimum. This void in between is usually very low owned and will allow for some unique lineups.

These guys seem to rotate in and out of the spots in the Blue Chip and Bear markets. I think they are a unit that is extremely matchup dependent and should not be a staple of your lineup each and every week. They go on the road to Minnesota this week, in what most would take to be an easy matchup. However, the Vikings have allowed 5 or fewer fantasy points to opposing DSTs in 7 games this year, and have allowed double digits only twice. They have turned the ball over multiple times just once this season, limiting the ways for a DST to score points. In addition to the matchup issues, I don’t like the Seahawks in tournaments. I always expect an inflated ownership % for these guys on brand name alone. In cash, I think they are a bad bet to reach that 3x value we seek and without another game format to play these guys, they’ll find themselves left in the player pool this week.