The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a Running Back we recommend:
All Day is officially back! AP leads the league in rushing with 961 yards, which is over 200 yards more than Chris Johnson in second. The only aspect of his game holding his fantasy numbers back has been his inability to get into the end zone. Peterson has only 5 scores through 9 games. Devonta Freeman’s 9 touchdowns give him a steady lead over Peterson as the top fantasy running back, but both should see their touchdown numbers normalize in the 2nd half of the season. AP is tied for 2nd in the league in red zone carries with 32, but has only converted 3 into scores. Green Bay struggles mightily against the run. The Pack have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns which ranks 22nd in the league, and they allow 4.2 YPC. Notable stat lines against the Packers this season:
Matt Forte: 24-141-1
Todd Gurley: 30-159-0
C.J. Anderson (yeah him): 14-101-1
Ronnie Hillman:19-60-2
Peterson averages 21 carries per game, and has seen as many as 29, not to mention his work in the pass game, where he has picked up a handful of additional points each game. The Vikings are committed to the run, so Peterson will have his chances. I’m looking for AP to rush for over 100 yards and 2 scores.
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
The Patriots have been the toughest puzzle to figure out in DFS this season. With Deon Lewis and Julian Edelman out for the foreseeable future, the puzzle should become clearer. In the first week without Lewis, Blount led the backfield with 38 snaps compared to 28 for James White who was ineffective in those snaps. Blount has the reputation as a goal line back, but Football Outsiders advanced stats show otherwise. Blount ranks 8th and 9th among running backs in DYAR and DVOA respectively. These stats compare Blount against the average back, given each individual situation. Blount ranks 2nd in success rate, which measures consistency. Blount is also getting it done in the red zone. He’s 5 touchdown had 28 carries inside the 20 on the year, but 15 RZ carries in the last 2 weeks after losing Lewis. Despite being perceived as a top defense, the Bills have been getting sifted by the run as of late.
(Week 10) Chris Ivory: 18-99-0
(Week 9) Lamar Miller: 12-44-2/ 7-97-0
(Week 8)TJ Yeldon: 20-115-1
The Patriots are 7 point favorites at home, in a plus matchup, and average 3.8 red zone scoring plays at home this season. Blount is the lead back in a high powered offense, but is priced at the same level as an RB2 in a shared backfield. The low floor and high ceiling make Blount an affordable piece in cash and tournament lineups.
If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:
Charcnado! After Jamal Charles torn his ACL, Charcandrick West was hit with crazy expectations which led to a week 6 letdown. Since then, West has 22 carries and 3 catches per game, averaging over 25 points. The Chiefs have not seen a huge drop in production, from what they had in Charles. 2 weeks ago we attacked the Chargers with Jeremy Langford, which proved to be money. This week we’re doing the same with Charcandrick. San Diego is 26th in DVOA, allows 4.9 YPC, and has given up 9 rushing TDs. We also know about Alex Smith’s inability to get WRs in the end zone. Only 4 of Smith’s passing TDs have gone to receivers, which increases West’s value as a legit threat in the passing game. As I always point out, price is key. Charcandrick’s ridiculous price tag of $4500 on DK makes him a must play.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
Has anyone been a bigger disappointment this year than Jeremy Hill? Eddie Lacy gives him a strong run for his money, but regardless, avoid Jeremy Hill this week. Hill has 5 rushing touchdowns in 2 games. In those 2 games, he averaged 22 DK points. In each other game, he scored 3.1, 2.1, 3.5, 7.8, 6.2, and 5. Without his 2 outlier games, Hill has performed as a minimum priced running back. His snap percentages are inconsistent, He is ineffective in his touches, and can’t seem to break his “sophomore slump”.
The Cardinals rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and allows 4 YPC. The Bengals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Texans, on a short week, in a less than ideal matchup. Vegas sees this game as a shootout at an O/U of 48, but I see it more as a grind it out game, so I guess something has to give. Either way, I’ll be avoiding Jeremy Hill.
