The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a Quarterback we recommend:
Finally, we see Aaron Rodgers in a plus matchup this week at home against the Lions. This same Lions group who just allowed 27 DK points to Alex Smith and a 300 yd passing game with a pair of TDs to Teddy Bridgewater in their last two outings. So, it is clear that Rodgers exceptional talent, in this matchup is a good spot.
The Packers have an implied total of 30 points, and the spread doesn’t bother me much. This is because if the Packers score 30, Rodgers should throw 2-3 TDs. Rodgers has passed for 19 of the Packers 23 offensive TDs this season. That’s a lot, and definitely contributes to Lacy’s poor fantasy season. The Packers aren’t the same unit this season, and to keep it close Rodgers has carried the weight of this group.
If you look at Rodger’s home splits the past two years, it is quite clear that Lambeau is the place for Rodgers to shine. This season alone his QB rating is 114 at home and 108 on the road. Last season it was a greater discrepancy going from 133 at home to 94 on the road. Making things worse for the Lions their two best corners in Slay and Mathis are going through concussion protocol and are questionable to play this week. But the tastiest matchup is in the slot with Randall Cobb and Josh Wilson. WIlson ranks 91 out of 111 CBs rated by Pro Football Focus. Cobb is the clear favorite target for Rodgers and gets a ton of red zone looks.
Rodgers is finally in a good spot at home this week. Fire him up in cash or tourney and he is going to deliver.
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
I rarely find myself paying up for QB in cash games on DK. Their pricing hasn’t been as tight as Fanduel this year, and that allows for solid QBs at great prices. So, saying that, I’ll be playing Bortles in cash.
Matchup wise, he is in the second best spot for a QB against the Ravens this week according to Fantasy Labs opponent +/- with a 6.7. That stat says on average the Ravens are giving an additional 6.7 points to QBs. When looking at other trends that correlate to QBs exceeding value on Fantasy Labs, the trends add up to around 8 additional fantasy points above expectation for Bortles based on his salary.
Throw in the more on matchups, we will see his top two WRs in prime spots this week. Hurns and Robinson are in the 3rd and 5th best WR/CB matchups rated by Pro Football Focus. Looking for the option to pair or stack with Bortles, I like Robinson in cash and tourney, Hurns in tourney, and both together with Bortles in tourney.
Bortles is a home run for the money at $5600. He’ll have no problem meeting value. The only occasions he didn’t this season happened in tough spots against elite defenses (Buffalo and Carolina). Dropping those outings and Bortles is averaging 24.3 DK points this season. That puts him 3rd just behind Drew Brees and Tom Brady. It is clear Bortles is drastically underpriced.
The Ravens are favored in this matchup, and this will allow Bortles continuing to throw throughout the game. Bortles is my top overall play this week at the QB spot when accounting for price. He allows a ton of flexibility at other positions this week and allowing for much better roster construction.
Coming into the season we all expected really big things from Tannehill. We had hoped to see him continue to build upon his success from 2014. That hasn’t happened as consistently as we were hoping, but more recently we have seen some of that.
Tannehill is dirt cheap, and a talented QB. The Eagles have given up big games to Kirk Cousins and Matt Cassel. I think it is fair to assume Tannehill could similarly exploit this Eagles unit to value.
Tannehill is projected to score 4.2 more points than his expected output based on his salary. This trend from Fantasy Labs has a positive correlation adding about 3 DK pts over expectation.
This Eagles team plays at a faster pace creating more opportunities for both offenses. Opportunities translate to fantasy points. Miami is expected to trail in this contest, forcing them to continue to throw throughout the game.
I like the upside of Tannehill, and the likely low owned percentages. This makes him a tournament play for me with some solid upside.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
Matt Cassel is a clear fade this week. New players this season are very reactionary. If you were to go back and look at ownership rates in the biggest tournaments, each week the highest owned players are likely to have had big weeks the previous week. Now, that isn’t always the case.In many instances though, we find less experienced players chasing a previous week’s performance. Cassel fits the bill on this one. At $5k and 20+ fantasy output last week in primetime, there will definitely be point chasers.
Cassel ranks 33rd in Pro Football Focus grades and in case you forgot there are only 32 starting QBs in the NFL. Cassel is a career backup dating back to his days at USC. He has made a career in the NFL following his great performance for the Patriots in 2008 during Tom Brady’s absence.
Playing Cassel with the cost savings it provides won’t offset his lack of production. Avoid Cassel and pay up to Bortles this week.
