Everyday we will post a Market Check, which is a summary of our research on a different position for the week.
This is not the end of our advice for the week. At the end of the week, we’ll make our picks at each position. Some of the picks will not be discussed in the Market Check.
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Bull Market
Players we believe will out-perform their salary for the week. These guys will give you the most bang for your buck when you are building lineups.
John Brown
DraftKings: WR49, $4,500 / FanDuel: WR36, $6,000
Carson Palmer “expects big things from Brown this year”, and so do I. There’s lots of reasons to love John “Smoke” Brown. First, his dedication to being great….the Division II product added 10 pounds in the offseason and spent this down time, not partying, but living with Carson Palmer to build chemistry and timing. Second, The Cardinals O and Brown are a perfect match… Pro Football Focus ranked Arizona QB’s had one of the highest % of deep passes attempted per drop backs and head coach Bruce Arians “6 home run play quota” per game is perfect for Smoke’s deep threat potential. With so many deep balls, one connection could blow the lid off your fantasy competition any given play and any given week. Third, Brown has a great first year despite atrocious QB play and a subpar O-line. Good news, “Roomie” aka QB 1 is back, O-line is improved, and the chemistry created during offseason workouts will pay off. Lastly, I mentioned in my week 1 defense post, I expect the Arizona defense to struggle…. Palmer won’t be playing from out front as much this season causing him to throw more which will mean more work for Brown. The week 1 matchup is a good one for Brown, with Saints top corner, Keenan Lewis out, expect the depleted secondary to get beat early and often and expect Brown to get plenty of targets and opportunites in the Dessert.
Cecil Shorts
DraftKings: WR73, $3,600 / FanDuel: WR56, $5,400
If you missed my post on Cecil, read it now! The bottom line is Cecil is outta the fantasy gutter of Jacksonville, and he will prove his fantasy value on a better team. Now in Houston, with Nuk Hopkins drawing all the double teams, Cecil will be able to showcase his superb route running skills. He will eat up all the man to man coverage that defenses will throw at him as they concentrate on stopping Nuk. Shorts’ skill is perfect for the Bill O’Brien west coast offense and Hoyer’s quick releases will be allow Shorts to earn lots of targets while he runs the majority of underneath and intermediate routes. The Chiefs are already short handed with top corner Steve Smith suspended and Pro Bowl NT Dontari Poe out week 1. I love this matchup for Cecil, he will destroy man coverage underneath and be a top waiver wire pickup in week 2.
Brandin Cooks
DraftKings: WR17, $7,100 / FanDuel: WR20, $7,400
Like John Brown, Cooks busted his ass this offseason. Working out with Brees and other top WR’s in the league to try to improve his game. Early reviews are positive, even Bill Belichick gave Cooks the tip of the cap. And with the Saints changing of the guard on offense, it’s apparent that Cooks is ready to pick up the slack. The lighting quick WR will likely absorb a large share of the 200+ targets left from Graham and Stills departure. I expect Cooks to lineup all over the place in this offense and get the ball a variety of different ways. I love his week 1 price and matchup vs a mighty poor Cardinals secondary and a first-time defensive coordinator James Bettcher. There will be lots of points scored by both squads, and I like Cooks to be in the center of it all.
DaVante Adams
DraftKings: WR52, $4,400 / FanDuel: WR46, $5,500
This is like stealing. Of course Davante’s low salary was predicated on Adams being the #3 WR in this potent Green Bay offense; however, the injury to Jordy Nelson bumps him to the #2 WR and his 70% usage rate will drastically increase. The Nelson injury also allocates 151 targets (24.3%), and as the #2 option you can bet Adams will see the biggest rise in production while Nelson heals up. Aaron Rodgers has a history of being pretty honest in his interactions with the media, so his exaltation of Adams should be noteworthy. DaVante has the trust of one of the top QB’s in the league and I expect their respect for each other to grow as DaVante becomes a superstar in Nelson’s absence. This week one matchup between the Packers and Bears will be a nightmare for new head coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Without much of a pass rush nor a strong secondary, Rogers and Adams will hook up often.
*DaVante will be a VERY popular pick amongst the DFS crowd, therefore if you’re playing in a high stakes tournament, you may want to make your lineup differ and avoid the chalk.
Honorable Mention: Jarvis Landry, Eddie Royal, Terrance Williams, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews
BEAR MARKET
Players we don’t believe will perform up to their salaries. We think you can find better value elsewhere.
Mike Evans
DraftKings: WR11, $7,700 / FanDuel: WR9, $8,300
Tampa Bay has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. It will be a struggle to sustain drives all season and it will limit Evans opportunities. Additionally, top draft choice, Jameis Winston had a very up and down preseason, looking wildly inaccurate in some games. It may take him a few weeks to settle in, which will hurt Evans’ value as well. Lastly, Evans showed enough to D coordinators last season for them to gameplan against him. On a team that won’t be in the redzone often, I think the extra special attention in 2015 will make it hard for Evans to be a consistent top tier fantasy contributor. Evans could be in for a sophomore slump. Don’t pay the high salary for Evans this week, I would much rather take the discounted Vincent Jackson as he will benefit from the special attention given to Evans.
Sammy Watkins
DraftKings: WR18, $7,000 / FanDuel: WR17, $7,600
This hurts me to write. But as talented as he is, Sammy just isn’t in the right system to produce like his elite abilities should allow him to. He opens the season with the worst QB in the league in Tyrod Taylor and an Offensive Coordinator that is infatuated with running the ball. Rex Ryan brought in the ultra-creative Greg Roman to invent ways to run the ball, control the clock and compliment his elite defense. While Roman is too smart to neglect Watkins game breaking ability, he doesn’t necessarily have a track record for creating WR1’s either. Each week there will be screens, handoffs and little wrinkles to get Watkins the ball, but I fear Sammy’s production won’t be consistent enough to feel good about your investment. Facing Luck and one of the most high powered offenses in the league this Sunday, you can bet the game plan will call for an abundance of runs to keep the Colts O off the field. It’s also possible that Watkins could receive the Vontae Davis treatment. Vontae Davis is one of the best lock down corners in the league which would almost certainly make Sammy a week 1 bust. Be safe and stay away, there’s lots more value at the lower tiers this week.
Brandon Marshall
DraftKings: WR22, $6,600 / FanDuel: WR19 $7,400
Bottom line is this is going to a boring football game. Two teams with the exact same identities, control the game and play good defense. Over the 2015 season I actually expect Brandon Marshall to out perform his the low fantasy rankings because Fitzgerald will pepper Marshall with targets all year. But this is not the week to draft Marshall as he will likely be followed around by Joe Haden. The Browns secondary is above average and if Jets can’t establish the run the Browns will ramp up their exotic man pressures to get heat on Fitzpatrick. The over/under is 39.5, the lowest of week 1 matchups for a reason. Don’t pay the high price of Marshall this week, as Haden will limit his opportunities. If you are inclined to draft a Jets WR, Decker may be sneaky good play in a bigger tournament contest because the aging Truman Williams may have lost a step or two.
