Everyday we will post a Market Check, which is a summary of our research on a different position for the week.
This is not the end of our advice for the week. At the end of the week, we’ll make our picks at each position. Some of the picks will not be discussed in the Market Check.
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Bull Market
Players we believe will out-perform their salary for the week. These guys will give you the most bang for your buck when you are building lineups.
Crockett Gillmore
DraftKings: TE30+, $2,500 / FanDuel: TE39, $4,700
Dennis Pitta is still injured, Owen Daniels left in free agency and rookie Maxx Williams has some more learning to do. That leaves Crockett Gillmore as the Ravens week 1 starter at TE. There’s a lot to like about Gillmore. Offseason reports have been glowing and many have said he hasn’t dropped anything in camp. Aside from improving as a player, his fantasy stock has increased as well. For starters, Ravens new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman loves to throw the ball and especially to the tight end position. In 2014 Trestman orchestrated an offense in Chicago that threw to Martellus Bennett a league leading 125 times. And unlike in Chicago, Gillmore will not have to compete with many elite WR’s for his target share. With rookie Breshad Perriman still injured, it leaves Grandpa Smith as the only viable threat through the air on the Ravens. Gillmore will get plenty of chances Sunday, especially because the elite Broncos corners will easily lock down starting WR’s Smith and Aiken, leaving Gillmore as the best matchup for Flacco to attack in Mile High.
Greg Olsen
DraftKings: TE2, $5,300 / FanDuel:TE4, $5,900
Kelvin Benjamin’s injury leaves a huge hole to fill for the Panthers offense. Benjamin led Carolina with 142 targets, 72 receptions and 31% of red zone targets in 2014. Without a legitimate WR to turn to, Olsen will be targeted even more than his absurd 121 targets in 2014. We saw a preview of this when he was targeted 8 times in 2 quarters of work in the third preseason game. Olsen will get force fed the ball and could go over 100 receptions on the year as the #1 option in the passing offense. Also, he will almost certainly absorb some of Kelvins red zone target percentage which will certainly increase his already impressive 34% share. Moreover, Olsen also gets a favorable week 1 matchup against the injury plagued Jacksonville defense. Olsen is well worth the the top tier price on both Draftkings and FanDuel (although he’s a slightly better bargain on FD) and may be one of this week’s safest picks overall because his workload will guarantee him a very productive day.
Tyler Eifert
DraftKings: TE13, $3,500 / FanDuel: TE23, $5,000
I was a huge fan of Tyler Eifert coming out of Notre Dame because he showed elite TE potential in college. After 2 seasons filled with injuries and a TE timeshare with Jermaine Gresham, Eifert is healthy and is front and center at the TE position for the Bengals. Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson believes Eifert can be elite, and multiple reports say he has looked unstoppable in camp. Andy Dalton knows that Eifert is a weapon, and the massive TE will become his escape valve all season, trusting him to come down with jumpballs….especially around the redzone. The Bengals will be an efficient chain moving offense all of 2015, with great balance on the ground and through the air. I expect them to be in the redzone a lot which is where Eifert will make his money. Team’s simply won’t be able to cover the 6’6 freak athlete. Eifert will get off to a hot start Sunday as he faces one of the worst secondaries of Oakland. Consider his mid tier salary a bargain this week, because he will be a top 10 TE play after he bursts onto the scene in week 1.
Jordan Cameron
DraftKings: TE8, $3,800 / FanDuel: TE9, $5,500
If you read my earlier post on Cameron, you know that I am a big believer in the Dolphins offense in 2015 which bodes well for the former USC Trojan. The Dolphins loaded their offense in the offseason with multiple weapons for Tannehill to choose from. In his third year of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s system, I think all systems are go for the fourth year QB, and he will be a breakout player in 2015. This is great news for Cameron who has never played with a good QB and has spent most of his career as the only weapon featured on the offense. Now he gets to enjoy being the 3rd or 4th option and defenses won’t be able to adjust to the mismatches he presents. This Miami offense will move the ball this season and will give Cameron oodles of opportunities to blossom into the fantasy stud we saw glimpses of in 2013. I love his mid range salary in this week….the Redskins passing defense is still below average and Jordan Cameron will get plenty of work in the redzone.
BEAR MARKET
Players we don’t believe will perform up to their salaries. We think you can find better value elsewhere.
Jimmy Graham
DraftKings: TE1, $5,600 / FanDuel: TE1, $6,900
Before you freak out, by placing Graham on the Bear list I am simply saying that there is better value elsewhere at the TE position this week. I have a hard time believing Graham will get as much work in the Seattle’s slower, methodical offense than in the pass happy Saints system. And until proven otherwise, I think Patriots corner Malcolm Butler taught OC Darrell Bevell a lesson about throwing on the goalline in Super Bowl XLIX. Marshawn will continue to dominate the redzone and goalline work in Seattle, taking away from Graham’s fantasy bread and butter.
Here’s some stats from Rotowire to back me up:
- The Saints offense threw the ball 659 times in 2014 compared to the Seahawks 454 times. If you’re not a math genius that’s a 31% decrease in opportunities for Graham.
- In 2014 the Seahawks entered the red zone 143 times and threw the ball 58 times or (41%), the Saints entered the red zone 158 times and threw the ball 82 times (52%).
- Even more drastic were the goal line stats, where the Seahawks had 22 opportunites inside the 5 yard line and threw the ball only 7 times (32%), while the Saints had 46 opportunites and threw it 19 times (42%).
- Of those goal line plays Graham led all tight ends with 7 targets inside the 5…you can expect that to decrease with Marshawn in Seattle.
Carroll traded a lot for Graham, so I don’t expect his production to completely diminish. But I also can’t see Wilson feeding Jimmy targets like Brees did either. Until we get some more clarity, don’t pay Graham a TE1 salary in week 1. Final thought: the Rams defense also possesses the versatility to match up with Graham and make life tough for his first game with the Super Bowl Champs.
Jason Witten
DraftKings: TE7, $4,000 / FanDuel: TE5, $5,800
Jason Witten is 33 years old, which in NFL years means it’s time to get your AARP card. With 3 straight years on the decline and 2013 2nd round draft choice TE Gavin Escobar finally proving his worth, I’m inclined to believe Witten is destined for more decline in 2015. Though the last 2 years have been bleak for Escobar, Coach Garrett has remained in his corner and after an impressive preseason he will finally be utilized more this season. While I love the Cowboys matchup against the Giants Sunday night, I’m not willing to pay Witten as a top tier TE until I know Escobar isn’t going to steal some red zone work. Like Graham, there’s better value elsewhere this week.
Martellus Bennett
DraftKings: TE5, $4,300 / FanDuel: TE2, $6,200
I’m not sure how important Martellus will be in new offensive coordinator Adam Gase’s system, but it’s safe to say his usage is bound to drop from the outrageous amount of targets showered upon him by Marc Trestman in 2014. I also believe free agent acquisition Eddie Royal, who has a history with QB Jay Cutler, will certainly cut into Bennett’s usage. Again, too many questions of workload to pay Bennett top tier $$ in week 1. Gase has a history of being an offensive “Chameleon”, using a wide varieties of systems to fit his players strengths, so it’s too unpredictable to tell how Bennett will be used. Cutler will be throwing a lot to try to keep pace with the Packers deadly O, but I’m not willing to risk top dollar for a TE that may have benefitted more from previous scheme than talent.
