Everyday we will post a Market Check, which is a summary of our research on a different position for the week.
This is not the end of our advice for the week. At the end of the week, we’ll make our picks at each position. Some of the picks will not be discussed in the Market Check.
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BULL MARKET
Players we believe will out-perform their salary for the week. These guys will give you the most bang for your buck when you are building lineups.
Ameer Abdullah
DraftKings: RB37, $4,000 / FanDuel: RB41, $5,900
Let his “3rd on the depth chart” BS scare the rest of the noobs. This dood was a freak show in college, a freak show throughout camp, and PROVED he’s a freak show on the field in preseason. I love the Lions offense this season because of the upgraded OL and second year in Joe Lombardi’s system. With so many weapons, I think this will end up being a top 5 offense overall, and Ameer will be a big part of it. All systems are go for Abdullah, even if he has to split time with Joique Bell. If healthy, (despite practicing, Joique is still uncertain if he’ll play Sunday) Bell will probably handle majority of early down work and goal line carries, but it doesn’t scare me. Abdullah is the type of back that won’t need a ton of work to be a solid fantasy option, he will get multiple catches and is a threat to break a long one at any time during the game. That also means if Joique doesn’t play, as Notorious B.I.G would say, the sky is the limit. At his very low price, I’m all over this play because I believe the majority of DFS players are still sleeping on his talent. Expect Abdullah to be involved heavily in the pass game, rack up catches and make his competition look like their in slow mo.
Duke Johnson
DraftKings: RB50+, $3,000 / FanDuel: RB43, $5,800
My favorite value/sleeper/bargain of the week!!!!! This guy is so far down the salary list on DraftKings that I had to search his name. The Browns have had a chubby for Duke since day 1, giving the rookie RB “superstar” treatment during camp, essentially letting him rest to ensure he is healthy for week 1. A concussion scare was not enough to keep Duke off the field. The Jets dominant D line will be shut down Crowell and force new OC DeFilippo to get creative. Coach Flip has an affinity for pass catching backs and will utilize the the Miami Hurricane all over the place. Expect passes, screens, maybe even some read zone with T Pryor :). I think the Browns mancrush for Johnson will be revealed week 1 utilizing him early and often, and at near minimum salary in both DraftKings & FanDuel, he will certainly meet his value, and has the potential to explode. Already likely a very scarcely drafted player, I think his concussion will keep some of the Duke believers away in fear that he won’t be used as much. Trust me, Pettine and Defilippo will unleash “The Hulk” on Sunday. This minimum priced back won’t be selected by the majority of DFS players, he could single handedly win you your contest this weekend. Book it!
Mark Ingram
DraftKings: RB16, $5,600 / FanDuel: RB13, $7,800
I already loved this matchup for Ingram and then word came that CJ Spiller won’t be suiting up for this one, increasing Ingram’s role even more. If you read the Defense Market Check article you know I think the Cardinals D is going to struggle this year with D line depleted and losing mastermind DC Todd Bowles. All the offseason moves suggest Sean Payton wants to cut down on turnovers and run a more efficient offense…. how do you do that? Pound the ball. New center Max Unger is one of the best run blocking Centers in the league and will open up massive holes for Ingram on Sunday. He is the unanimous goal line back and is rumored to be more involved in the pass game which increases his fantasy value even more. At a mid tier salary, I love Ingram week 1. Snatch him up in all formats.
Jonathan Stewart
DraftKings: RB14, $5,800 / FanDuel: RB21, $7,100
J stew finally got his shot to prove he’s a lead back after DeAngelo Williams went down last season and not only did the Panthers go on a 5 game winning streak, J Stew was the 2nd leading rusher over those 5 weeks. For the first time in his career J Stew is both fully healthy and slotted as the bell cow RB. I was already anticipating a large workload for the 8th year Oregon Back, and then the Benjamin injury increased it even more. I’m pretty sure the starting WR’s for a handful of college teams would be better options than the Panthers starters (Ginn and Philly Brown) week 1. Therefore, the Panther’s may feed Stew the ball until he vomits on Sunday. This high volume of work will come against an absolutely decimated Jaguar defense. The already weak Jags group has seen injuries to top choice Dante Fowler(freakin bummer), starting DE Alan Branch, and best D-lineman Sen’darak Marks. That’s a lot of beef up front. It’s likely Panthers will be icing the game away in the second half by letting J Stew put the finishing touches on an outstanding first week. I LOVE Stew in 50/50 and triple up contests.
Honorable mention: Justin Frosett, Shane Vareen, Danny Woodhead
BEAR MARKET
Players we don’t believe will perform up to their salaries. We think you can find better value elsewhere.
TJ Yeldon
DraftKings: RB20, $5,500 / FanDuel: RB23, $7,000
I think Yeldon was a fine draft choice and will eventually be very good with new Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson, but it may take some time. On paper this matchup features one of the worst run blocking offensive lines (Jags) vs. a very good run stopping D (Panthers). Not a great first matchup for the rookie Yeldon. With the Julius Thomas injury, and Arob not drawing double teams yet, there’s no reason to believe that the Panthers won’t stack the box and make Bortles prove he can throw the ball in the NFL. Although Bortles looked great in preseason, I want to see him move the team in the regular season before I invest in the Jags O. Also, a strong preseason from both Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart could have cemented roles in the new offense. The threat of Shoelace and Gerhart stealing workload isn’t out of the question for a rookie with a lot to prove running behind a bad o line. It wouldn’t surprise me to see (when healthy) Gerhart get goal line work this season. Hate this matchup for Yeldon, fade Jags until we see if Bortles can become a solid NFL starter and move this offense.
Alfred Morris
DraftKings: RB17, $5,500 / FanDuel: RB15, $7,400
Morris’ matchup is a tale of two franchise’s on drastically different paths, the Redskins are again in disarray and the Dolphins’ optimism is through the roof. Alfred Morris may finally be caught in the crosshairs of his dysfunctional organization. The offensive line for Washington will have a hard time moving top FA Ndamukong Suh and the Dolphins defense. Without Robert Griffin III and the threat of read zone, some rushing lanes may dry up for Morris this season. Also, the Dolphins are one of my favorite breakout offenses and could jump on the Redskins early causing them to throw the ball. The ‘Skins coaching staff is reportedly enamored with rookie RB Matt Jones, who is much more of a pass catching back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sprinkled in and steal some work from Morris. Stay away until we see if Coach Gruden and the Redskins can persevere through this titlewave of shit.
Marshawn Lynch
DraftKings:RB6 $7,300 / FanDuel: RB6 $8,600
Kinda ballsy for a first week fantasy analyst huh? Betting against one of the most consistent RB’s of the last 5 years?!?! BUT…..I don’t think this is a great matchup for Beastmode and it could very well be his toughest test of the year against thee best D line in the league. Plus, the timing is terrible as the Seahawks are still shuffling the O-line around after trading away their anchor and best run blocker Max Unger in the offseason. It will likely take the Seahawks a couple weeks for the line to get in sync. I don’t like Marshawn for the price this week, I’d opt for a number of other backs in his salary tier……. Hill, Anderson, Murray are all players that I like more for that kind of cheese.
Joseph Randle
DraftKings: RB12, $5,900 / FanDuel: RB25, $6,900
Ugh this is so tough for me. This is a GREAT matchup for whoever carries the ball in Big D, but that’s the problem…I’m not sure how the carries will be dispersed. Scared of the RBBC, I can’t get behind Randle this week. Whoever emerges can potentially become a great daily play because of the outstanding O-line vs. the awful Giants D. However, there’s too many other favorable plays to take the risk of Randle not being fully utilized. Let’s wait and see how Garrett handles this RBBC before we invest in the Cowboys backfield.
Honorable mention: Melvin Gordon, Carlos Hyde, Isaiah Crowell
