Bull Market: Cleveland Run Game

My focus will be solely on daily fantasy this season, but on the eve of so many traditional fantasy drafts I had to shed some light on why I’m stashing Browns RB’s in my traditional leagues….

Tonight is the Super Bowl for the Browns RB rotation….and also fantasy players looking to cash on some of the best lotto tickets in your fantasy draft this season. For the first time, Duke Johnson will be suited up and all three Cleveland backs will rotate during the 1’s extended playing time. It will be our first and last glimpse of how the Browns will utilize the 3 this season.

I get it, the Browns are a joke, and have been a joke, both in real football and fantasy since 1999. Outside of the one year wonder, Josh Gordon, the Browns have not offered you much in your quest of a fantasy championship since Braylon in 2007. It’s easy to see why the fantasy community is shying away from Browns again in 2015. I completely understand, but I also want you to know that the 2014 season was not a good indication of what the Browns could be capable of on the ground in 2015.

By diving deeper into the 2014 season stats and projecting the implications of offseason moves, the stars could finally align for a RB in Ctown this season. I know you think I’m crazy but let me state my case…..

First all 3 Cleveland backs are inexpensive, lets take a look at their current ADP’s:

Myfantasyleague.com’s current Average Draft Position:

Isaiah Crowell – 103 (37th RB taken)

Duke Johnson – 108 (39th RB taken)

Terrance West – 168 (60th RB taken)

So, Why the Upside?

Exhibit A – Great O Line

First, the return of Alex Mack makes this O-line one of the best in the league. Dominating in the trenches can make any NFL offense dangerous.

The following are OL ratings and rankings from Pro Football Focus: Cleveland’s OL is primed to open some holes this season:

Schwartz needs some work, but 4 out of 5 in the top ten is pretty damn good. Not to mention they added one of the most “NFL ready” lineman in the draft with the moose, Cam Erving. An injury to Mack (more on that in a minute) won’t derail the offense this season.  You can expect there to be lots of room to run for (insert your Browns RB here).

Exhibit B – “Mack Back”

If you’re not a Browns fan, the next set of stats will shock you……The first 5 weeks of the 2014 season the Browns were effectively able to move the ball like a real NFL offense! Then an injury to center Alex Mack dried up the run game. Defenses were able to pin their ears back and rush Brian Hoyer and things quickly went south. It was apparent to watch, but looking at the stats it is absolutely STAGGERING how much of an impact Mack had on this offense. Take a look at the stats from the first 5 games when he was healthy to the last 11 when he was on IR:

Points per game down by 12….. 5 less first downs per game….. 30 less pass yards….double the turnovers…..AND 45 LESS RUNNING YARDS PER GAME! With Mack back at center, a huge bump should be given to (insert Browns RB here).

Exhibit C – “The Loaded Box”

Lastly, Mike Clay’s of profootballfocus.com “Impact of Defensive Packages on Yards Per Carry – 2015” shows how many times the Browns and their RB’s faced fewer than 5 defensive backs on the field or an 8 man box in 2014. Under Kyle Shanahan’s system the graph shows that Crowell and West led the league at facing fewer than 5 defensive backs on the field at almost 90% of the time.

The following table from Profootballfocus.com shows how many defensive backs were on the field when players rushed the ball:

This table shows the percentage for how many defensive backs were on the field vs. the Browns offense last season.

A new offensive coordinator and upgrades at WR will soften the box in 2015. With Bowe, Hartline and Hawkins in the slot the Browns will feature more 11 personnel forcing the defense to add a nickel back onto the field and create more running room for the Browns backs to run. And although McCown is not much of an improvement at QB, he features a much stronger arm than Hoyer. And with (not to beat a dead horse) C Alex Mack back and deeper offensive line depth should provide more time for the stronger armed McCown to take shots down the field and loosen up the jam packed box in 2015.

Also, the added dimension of a talented scat back in Duke Johnson will also create some issues for teams trying to load the box. Defilippo will create ways to get Johson the ball on the perimeter to spread the D out.

Exhibit D – “Offseason moves”

• Mike Pettine has made it clear since day one – the formula for success will be to pound the ball and attack on defense. The Browns’ offseason moves bolster that gameplan…unlike in 2014, the Browns are equipped to play this style of ball in 2015.

• Pettine switched from working with the defense in 2014, working exclusively with the offense in 2015. Anyone with coaching experience knows that a defensive minded head coach will try to invent ways to run the ball and control the clock. Expect the RB’s to get more carries this season.

• New OC DeFilippo comes from a background of coaches that like to throw the ball to RB’s. Outside of a deeper running playbook, expect more screens, swings and pass plays designed for RB’s this season.

• The Browns addressed their atrocious run defense by using 3 of their first 4 draft picks on DL, including the top rated NT in the draft in Danny Shelton, already featuring a top rated pass defense, the extra beef up front will stop other teams from bleeding the clock and give the Browns offense more opportunities in 2015.

So, Who Ya Takin?

Duke Johnson

• I’m predicting an explosive performance tonight, which will increase his ADP, but I definitely want this guy on my roster. He is the safest of the 3 Browns RB’s to draft due to his unique skill set which differs from the other two bigger backs and will keep him involved in the game plan consistently. Like most rookie RB’s I expect his role to expand as the season goes on. Lacking playmakers, the Browns will have to get creative with Duke, and his ability with the talented O-line makes his ceiling very high. Marry that to the affinity Defilippo has for pass catching backs, and you potentially have your sleeper of the entire 2015 fantasy draft.

Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell

• This is still a 50/50 battle in my opinion. However, because I can get West for next to nothing late in the draft,  I’m going to pass on Crowell and stash West. My gut tells me West will see more carries than Crowell but both will be used again. On pure talent, West has a much more diverse skill set than Crowell and is more of the 3 down back the Browns are looking for. West has flashed speed, power, and elusiveness in his young career, but he’s still lacking vision and anticipation. His ability to read the defense will improve with more carries, and when/ if it clicks, he could breakout with the talent he possesses. The risk with West is his reoccurring off the field issues with the coaches. If he can stay out of the doghouse he could have a big year. Crowell is much more downhill, see the hole and hit the hole type runner. He will not juke anyone out in the open field but he is quick and decisive with the ball. In my opinion, his success last season was due to the offensive line. He is not the type of back that can create on his own, something that is vital in the NFL.  West is more talented and much cheaper than Crowell, he would be my investment this season.

Tonight will shed some light on the murky RB situation, but for now, don’t miss out on Duke Johnson and make sure to stash West with one of your last picks!