Wilson makes the list again this week, climbing out of our “second tier”. I put second tier in quotes to remind you that Mike Pettine made a comment this week about his opponent, Russell Wilson, classifying him in the “second tier” and not able to “transcend (his) supporting cast”. I think the narrative makes this a fun play. I don’t usually trust chasing it, but occasionally, I’ll go for it.
What I really like about Wilson this week is his team’s implied point total of 29, putting him second only to the Patriots. A high team total typically corresponds to QB production. The Seahawks are at home, and a big favorite. But the reason I don’t worry about that this week is the lack of a running game present for Seattle. They have signed two guys that weren’t even on a roster last week.Jackson’s role shouldn’t change, so how will they score? Wilson. His last 4 games, Wilson has been averaging over 32 DK points. That timeline coincides with Lynch’s absence. No coincidence there. The Browns come in as a top 5 matchup for opposing QBs allowing 4.7 DK points above salary expectations this season.
Wilson’s recent performance has moved him up to 1st in yards per attempt, tying him with Carson Palmer at 8.8 ypa. His efficiency is up significantly, and that’s why we can feel comfortable rostering him in this spot, because volume won’t be necessary to meet value this week. I think Wilson may be less likely than some guys to play into the narrative, but I think he comes out with a little something to prove this week.
I think Wilson is solid in cash this week, because of his floor being so high. I like him a little less in tournaments than last week with the price jump, and I’m not sure where his ownership will fall. I think the play most weeks has been to pay down at QB and more frequently we see the top priced guys underowned. I don’t know for sure that’s the case this week with Wilson, because a lot of people will be following the points.
Also consider: Carson Palmer
I’m not giving up on the New Orleans matchup yet. Our favorite defense to pick on will host Stafford and the Lions in New Orleans this weekend. I don’t have to tell you much about how bad the Saints are, but just remember, they allowed 700 yards passing and 8 TDs to Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins.
Stafford has been underwhelming at times, but he’s got the weapons and skill set to match the insane production some guys have put out against the Saints. Stafford has been solid the last 4, and really standing out on Thanksgiving, exceeding salary expectations each of the last 4 weeks. Over that span, he has thrown 9 TDs to just 1 interception. The over/under is the highest on the slate at 51, and suggests this could be a barn burner with two solid offenses, squaring away against inferior defensive units. With such at high total and a solid implied total, this game could easily turn into a 35-38 game one way or another, and if that happens volume will benefit Stafford. I think Stafford is a better tournament play this week. I think people will be more hesitant in the matchup, remembering how poorly Winston played last week. Also, I think there was some talk on Stafford last week, citing recent success. He didn’t crush the match-up, to 4x-5x salary, and because of that some people might be moving on. I could see the number around 10% owned.
Also consider: Blake Bortles
Carr became a popular play during the middle of the season, averaging almost 24 DK points from weeks 2-10. Then he got matched up against, a hot Detroit D in Detroit, the Chiefs and Broncos the last two. So, we saw a significant dip in production during that stretch, and he’s been off a lot of radars. The Packers aren’t a homerun matchup, but come in allowing 3.1 fantasy points above salary expectations this season to QBs. They are allowing 5 more fantasy points on the road this season, which is where they find themselves this week, heading to Oakland. The Packers could be down their best corner, Sam Shields, this week, making it an even better spot for Carr and his cast.
One of the trends Fantasy Labs tracks is salary movement. It factors into a couple of their ratings and has proven to be a good indicator in most cases of predicting outcome. Salary dropping more than $500 over a period of a month, has shown QBs in this spot exceed expectations by 2.65 DK points. Well, Carr is coming off a $700 price dip in the past month. And it’s been based off matchups. Carr, hasn’t declined. He hasn’t been playing with lesser weapons. He’s just been through a tough stretch that saw him lower owned, with less production. In average matchup we should expect to see Carr’s production around that 24 DK average he had early on, which moved his price pretty fairly in the $6K range. Priced all the way down to $5600, we get a solid QB in an above average matchup, significantly underpriced. A lot of DFS pros are very price sensitive and treat the players as a commodity in a market. They will buy players who are underpriced regardless of matchup, and sometimes pass on those who are overpriced (seen a price jump).
I think Carr is a sharp play this week and is definitely in cash consideration. We should feel good about his opportunity to reach the 3x value, and pretty optimistic to get in the 4x range. I think Carr will be a good tournament play as well this week because recency bias will move the masses away and, because the Packers aren’t a familiar defense to pick on, some won’t see how solid the spot is.
Eli is in a tough matchup this week. Mostly, this ties into his primary weapon in the passing game is going to be tied up with Josh Norman. Norman, and this Panthers defense as a whole, have made it tough for QBs this season, allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points. I think Eli looks solid coming off a good game on Monday night, and I think some people will dismiss the matchup more than they should. 6 times this season, the Panthers have allowed QBs fewer than 10 fantasy points, and only twice have they had anyone crack 20, Brees and Rodgers.
Looking at Eli’s outlier games where he crushed value were against; SF, NO and MIA. All 3 of those defensive units rank in the top 10 most favorable matchups for QBs, with Miami even higher on the list if we look at the latter half of the season. I think the total seems a hair high at 48, and if you buy into that, a low implied total doesn’t bode well for Manning and the Giants. Keep Manning off your rosters this week.
