In the top pricing tier, I’m going back to the well again with the KC Chiefs. They have come on incredibly strong the past 8 weeks, rivaling the Broncos in fantasy production from a DST. The Chiefs mark the boxes of home, favorites against a SD offense in free fall, who is averaging just over 10 points per game over their last 3. The Chargers come in with the lowest implied point total on the slate at 17.5 points.
This will be the second meeting between the two, and trends show offensive performance decreases in the 2nd matchup of divisional games. I don’t see the Chargers scoring less than their previous output, 3, but I think the Chiefs are in a solid spot. The Chiefs have been compiling points in bunches over the last 8 weeks to catapult them into the 3rd highest scoring unit this season, and 1st over the last 8. They are scoring points off sacks, 4th most, and take aways, 2nd. Looking at the matchup the Chargers have allowed multiple sacks in all but 2 games, and are 6th in turnovers this season, making this a dream spot for the Chiefs. The Chiefs will likely be the team in most of my lineups this week. They provide plenty of security for cash consideration, and based off the upside we have seen, will absolutely be a top tournament play this weekend.
In the middle this week, I think the Lions could be a solid play. As a team, the Lions have been trending upward the past few weeks, winning 3 of 4 and allowing less than 20 points in those 3 wins. The Rams are a top 5 matchup for opposing DSTs, and are a mess of an offense. They are averaging 11 points per game over their last 5, and combined for 10 in their last two. The QB situation is a mess, regardless of who starts. The Rams have turned the ball over at least once in 10 of 13 games this season, and come in 5th overall in turnovers. The Lions are averaging over 3 sacks a game in their last 4, and that has helped them notch a few more wins. The Lions are a solid play largely from a matchup standpoint. The Rams just aren’t going to score many points and that brings our floor up to around 4 points, even if the Lions fail to record a sack or TO. Mix in a few peripherals, or a possible DST TD, and the Lions will be able to crush their salary.
We’ve taken some teams that probably raise some eyebrows in this portion of the market this season, including the Saints. The 49ers will match this trend and likely get a few head scratches, but at this price we aren’t hoping for much. At $2100, we only need 6 DK points from the 49ers to feel comfortable with our choice. The Browns recently surpassed the Titans as the most favorable matchup for opposing DSTs, allowing an additional 4.5 fantasy points above average scoring. That’s largely because they have given up multiple sacks in all but 1 game this season, putting them 1st overall with 41 sacks allowed. Additionally, it hasn’t mattered who has been in at QB, the Browns have still turned the ball over in 10 of 13 games this season. Manziel will get the start this week, and I don’t really think he provides much more for this offense than Austin Davis, and based on personality and college performance, he has proven to take many more chances than necessary. Manziel in his two previous starts has failed to score more than 10 points, and that really brings up the floor of this 49ers unit pretty close to value. I think the 49ers are a safe cash play, and could easily get 4-5x value to help bolster tourney lineups, and provide salary relief. Fire the 49ers up in both formats.
The Patriots come in this week as the highest priced DST AT $3500. They are projected to score the 15th most points this week, and that is a costly point per dollar DST that isn’t necessary to pay for. The matchup isn’t anything to fear, but the Texans have been solid as of late, only giving up 4 fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs over their last 5. The Patriots we priced up when they were crushing teams, and being put in favorable scenarios where teams needed to throw, increasing the opportunity for sacks and interceptions. With all the firepower lost in New England, the Patriots will likely find themselves in a lot more close games, severely limiting their upside potential from a DST perspective. Over their last 4, the Patriots DST are only scoring 3 fantasy points per game. They are just too pricy for consideration this week. The Patriots appear the least likely to exceed their salary this week, and for that reason we recommend paying down to any of the 3 above.
