Week 11 Picks: Quarterbacks

In the top level this week, I like Cam Newton at home against the Redskins. The biggest reason I like Cam this week, is his consistency. Add to it, Newton is in a top 5 matchup for QBs this week, according to Fantasy Labs opponent +/-. I reference this stat a lot, because I really like to see how others have performed against these opponents. The part that is best about using this information is how Fantasy Labs accounts for the strength of opponent. So instead of looking at raw data, this number takes into account when a team performs less than their average against, say, Tom Brady, or performing really well against Brandon Weeden.

The easy things to look at with Cam is in his game logs. Newton has failed to reach his implied points based on salary just once this year. Cam’s implied points this week, based on salary, are right around 17. He failed to reach that number in week 1 only. Cam has played much better at home this season, averaging 26 DK points and is also averaging 9 rushing attempts and 40 rushing yards over his 9 games. He also is 12th in red zone rushes at 17, and has rushed for 6 TDs. Cam has an incredibly high floor, of around 20 yds rushing, 200 yds passing and at least a passing or rushing TD. Newton’s upside could be the highest as well. We will see a game this season where he throws AND rushes for multiple TDs.

Cam at his price provides a ton of security. I think this week with all the value at RB and WR, you can afford to pay up a little bit at QB in your cash games. For me, Cam is one of the best for the money. His upside in tournaments is always a plus, so I like him in that format as well.

Andy Dalton was disappointing play last week. However, if you watched the game Dalton definitely didn’t get a lot of help. There were two Tyler Eifert drops that could have sustained drives and turned into scores. A fumble by A.J. Green at the end was another possibility to salvage his game. Dalton has surprisingly been really solid this season in real life and fantasy production. In the past, critics have pointed to Dalton not being more than an average starter. The numbers tell a different story. Dalton is top 10 in completion percentage, 4th in QB Rating and yards per attempt. Pro Football Focus, who grades every NFL snap, ranks him 4th as well.

Based on Dalton’s salary, he is only expected to score 16 points this week. Fantasy Labs projects him to score 21, and over the past two seasons when a QB is projected to score more than 4.9, they have scored on average 3.17 points above expectation. So, that would put Dalton in a solid spot to exceed value. I like the fact that this game with the Bengals and Cardinals comes in with the highest over/under at 48, and with the Bengals expected to trail, I could see Dalton having to throw more frequently. Though the matchup will scare some off, the Cardinals have not actually faced an elite QB this season. I’m a little hesitant to put Dalton in that “elite” group, but that’s probably just me being stubborn. The numbers say otherwise. I like Dalton more as a tournament play this week, because I expect ownership levels to be way down after a poor Monday night stat line that most people saw. He is in an OK spot, that could end up being a shootout.

This is the second time I’ve recommended Tyrod. And most of what I said still holds true. Taylor didn’t end up being the best play, but the safety of reaching our target 3x for value held. Taylor is dirt cheap this week at $5200 on DK, so to get to the 3 times his salary we just need over 15 DK points. In this spot, I think that is very easy.

Looking at the matchup, the Patriots are allowing an additional 2.5 DK points to opposing QBs this season. Mostly, this has come from putting teams in scenarios where they have to throw more frequently. I don’t see that changing this week. In the matchup earlier this season, Taylor blew up. I don’t expect him to match his Week 2 performance, but I think it’s a good possibility to reach 20 DK points this week. This game has the 2nd highest over/under, so it’s clear Vegas expects some points to be scored. The thing that adds to Taylor’s floor is his ability to run the ball. On average this season he is averaging 7 carries for 35 yds. So he’s going to throw in 2-3 points rushing every week, with the upside of a score, around 200 passing yards, and upside of multiple passing TDs. His floor is right around 10 points, with real upside of 30. There is a possibility the Patriots top linebacker, Jamie Collins, doesn’t play this week and I think this ups the Bills interior offense running and passing. Taylor is my cash play this week, and I think he is a solid tourney play also. His underwhelming performance last week will move a lot of the public off. So fire up Taylor in all contests.

OK, I know this is going to take some convincing. Who would ever recommend to avoid Tom Brady? Well, I’m going to try. No way do I believe Brady will be a bust this week. However, the matchup isn’t easy, coming in as the 2nd toughest in Fantasy Labs opponent +/- at -3.2, meaning they are forcing QBs to 3.2 fewer DK points than their average. The Bills have allowed the 5th fewest passing TDs and have the 5th most interceptions. To me those numbers don’t tell me Brady can’t be successful, because he proved in week 2 it was quite possible. I do worry though about the Patriots losing Edelman. He had the 2nd most red zone targets in the NFL, tied with Gronk. He was a real weapon for Brady this season, and I think without him and Lewis, this Patriots attack is not nearly as strong. The biggest reason I want to avoid Brady is because how limiting it is for the rest of your roster. If you play Brady, it doesn’t allow you to slot a top RB, or Gronk, who I love this week. His price is very prohibitive, and I think limits overall roster upside. For Brady to have a big game, and give us big points over value, we need 35-40 points. That is a much less likely outcome than spending down on a QB, Taylor, who could pretty easily get to 5x his salary. I think that money can be spent better in other places this week.