The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a DST we recommend:
The top defense doesn’t come cheap this week. The Seahawks top both Draftkings and Fanduel DST in price. However, I think this week it could be worth the expense. This Seahawks D welcomes to town the hapless 49ers. The 49ers are a mess on both sides of the ball and they just benched Colin Kaepernick in favor of Blaine Gabbert. Let that sink in, Kap was so bad, they put Blaine Gabbert in. Dating back to 2013, in his last 5 games Gabbert has thrown 9 interceptions. The 2011 first round bust has only played 5 games since 2013, because no one would let him start for them.
The Seahawks mark the starting point as home, favorites. They are favored by the largest margin on the slate, 13. This matchup ranks 4th in Fantasy Labs opponent +/- at +2.3. This +2.3 references, on average the 49ers are allowing 2.3 additional DK points to opposing DSTs. Looking at the sacks and turnovers, Seattle is 8th in total sacks and this 49ers unit has given up the 5th most sacks this season. The best part I found while looking at Seahawks DST scores the past two seasons, is at home the Seahawks are scoring an additional 2.5 DK points over the past two seasons. That’s a significant boost for a position that rarely gets to double digits.
I know I wrote to avoid the Seahawks last week, because I don’t believe this is the “Legion of Boom” we have been accustomed to the past few years. However, at home, with this huge spread, it is hard not to like the Seahawks. Vegas predicts the 49ers to score less than 14, and that raises their floor to around 4 points. Throw in the mismatches, and the Seahawks are in a great spot.
Also consider: Panthers
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
The Eagles check our starting boxes as a home, favorite this week against Tampa Bay.The Buccaneers are projected to score the 3rd fewest points this week, according to the Vegas odds makers. The Eagles are sneaky good. Like I noted last week, with so much attention on Chip Kelly and the Eagles offense, we never hear about the defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles rank 2nd in their Defense-Adjusted Value over Average stat of total defense. This takes into consideration the measurables statistically when accounting for opponent strength. In their non-adjusted stats, the Eagles are 8th in points per game allowed, and 6th in yards per play.
They have a matchup this week that ranks in the top 10 in Fantasy Labs opponent +/- and the Eagles are 2nd in the NFL in takeaways with 20, against the Bucs who are 5th in turnovers, 16. Same as last week the Bucs could be without Austin-Sefarian Jenkins and Ali Marpet. These are two important parts of their offense, as a weapon for Jameis and a protector of Jameis. Looking at some of the individual matchups up front, the Eagles dominate in Pro Football Focus’s grades. All four defensive linemen have a significantly higher grade than the Bucs starting unit. This for the same reason I liked the Cowboys last week, could be a solid spot for the Eagles to accrue points in sacks, and hopefully force Winston into poor decisions.
If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:
I had a tough time selecting a DST in this range this week. There weren’t any glaring choices, like being at home against a bad offense. No underpriced units. Nothing really noteworthy. But, once I got past the surface, the Chiefs revealed themselves. Not because they are playing the Chargers on the road this week, but because they have been an elite unit their past 5 games.
The Chargers actually come in as the 4th most favorable matchup according to Fantasy Labs opponent +/-. Additionally, the Chargers have allowed either multiple sacks or turnovers in all but 1 game this season. Throw in how depleted the Chargers offensive arsenal is, I don’t see them being as effective as they were early in the season.
Now looking at this Chief’s unit. Over the past 5 games, the Chiefs have scored 65 DK points, that is the most over that stretch, and would average out the highest this season. Following it up, they have allowed less than 20 points the last 5 games, created 13 turnovers, and 17 QB sacks. Those are crazy numbers. I expect a little regression at some point, but I don’t think the Chargers are an elite offense this late in the season, so I think the Chiefs could stay on track. The Chiefs provide some safety and upside both this week. Not a bad cash play if you need the salary relief, and should be a decent tourney play because I don’t think the public is on them enough to drive up their ownership percentages.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
This recommendation hurts me, because before Gurley this season, the Rams D has been about the only bright spot for a Rams fan. I still like their talent, but the matchup is a little concerning.
The Rams are on the road and carry a hefty price tag.Fantasy Labs puts this as the 3rd most difficult matchup this week. It’s not like this is a great offense, but the Ravens are scoring in the top third in points, allowing the 7th fewest sacks and in general just not rewarding the opposing DSTs much. The Rams have been far less impressive on the road this season, failing to reach double digits so far. In this range I like a lot of the other options more. I can see paying up or down to get to the Seahawks or Eagles. I don’t love the Todd Gurley correlation this week with the Rams expected to trail. So, unless you are just wanting to play them as a homer pick, or want to chase the chance they go off, I’d look another direction this week.
