The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a DST we recommend:
At the top this week I like the Panthers. They don’t meet my typical criteria as a home favorite, but they are still a favorite on the road in Tennessee. The Panthers are favored by 5.5 this Sunday, putting the Titans at an implied total less than 21. That brings a little security as our DST points begin based on how many points the opposing offense scores. The Titans come in with the 4th lowest implied points on the slate. Save last week when I recommended the Saints against Tennessee, they are still allowing on average double digit fantasy points to opposing DSTs, ranking them highest in Fantasy Labs opponent +/- at +5.4.
Something surprising I found researching this matchup was how much worse Mariota has been at home this season. In 3 home games he’s totaled 5 ints, the total he has thrown all season. Kendall Wright is also unlikely to take the field, so the Titans will be down one of their top weapons.
The Panthers are 3rd in sacks and 4th in total takeaways (1st in interceptions). This Titans offense has given up the 4th most sacks and are 3rd in total turnovers this season. You’re looking at a turnover prone offense with a bad offensive line, who faces an elite Panthers squad at creating turnovers and getting after the QB. This is the type of matchup we look for.
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
The Eagles are home, favorites this week against Miami. We hear so much about Chip Kelly, and actually how bad his offense is this year, that it overshadows that this Eagles defensive squad is really good. They have 3 Pro Bowl caliber players, rated by Pro Football Focus, 1 above average starter, and a bunch of other solid pieces. Upfront we see superior matchups with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham against a Dolphins offensive line with 3 players grading below replacement level, putting them pretty far down the list.
The Dolphins have given up the 6th most sacks this season, and Tannehill has the 4th most interceptions. Combine the fact that the Eagles are tops in total takeaways in the NFL, the Eagles will be a sneaky play this week with a chance at a lot of upside.
If you’re feeling really brave and want to differentiate from the field, you could pair Sproles with the Eagles and get a little double dip if he were able to take one in on a punt return this week.
If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:
I don’t think there is much safety this week in the low end range for the DSTs. However, I don’t hate the Cowboys this week.
They are facing the Buccaneers who rate as the 5th best matchup in Fantasy Labs opponent +/-. Despite all the terrible things Greg Hardy appears to be as a person, he is pretty good at football. Hardy gets a matchup against one of the worst LTs in the league this week in Donovan Smith, according to Pro Football Focus. There is a good chance the Bucs will be without their two best lineman in Logan Mankins, out, and Ali Marpet, questionable. This makes the Cowboys front even more appealing this week.
And Jameis, the man with a taste for crab, has fared similarly at home this season as Mariota. 6 of his 7 interceptions have happened in Tampa Bay. 10 out their total 14 turnovers, 5th most, have all happened in Tampa.
The Cowboys are a GPP play with some risk, but will provide low ownership percentages and provide some cap relief.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
I expect these guys to be overowned on brand name alone. The Seahawks have been the DST the past few years, and people still see them as the top unit in the NFL. They aren’t even a top 5 unit coming it at #7, according to Football Outsiders, in their total defense DVOA rankings. This stat accounts for strength of opponent to provide a more rating of a defense.
Looking at their fantasy production they are a distant 4th. Tyler Lockett’s two return TDs this season have buoyed their production. They are outside the top 10 in sacks, and have created the 4th fewest turnovers this season with 8. They just aren’t doing the same things we have seen them do in years past.
The other thing to consider this week before rostering Seattle is their matchup. The Cardinals come in by a few metrics as the second toughest offense for DSTs. Palmer and the Cardinals have been incredibly efficient this season coming in with the highest yards per play average at 6.7. They are second in points per game behind only the Patriots.
I just think more thought this week needs to go into rostering the Seahawks. They could bring a performance we’ve seen in years past that pushes your lineup forward, but if I were betting, I’d say it is much more likely we see them fail to meet value and take away cap space that could be better spent elsewhere.
