The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a Running Back we recommend:
Don’t overthink when it comes to running back this week. Todd Gurley will be highly owned, but he is the clear top play at running back for week 10. The Bears are coming off a comeback road win on a short week, which sets up for a letdown spot at the Rams. Surprisingly, the Bears are 5th in the league in passing yards allowed, but struggle against the run, allowing 4.6 YPC. This plays right into the Rams strength as they are last in the league in passing yards per game (177), but are 4th in the league in rushing yards per game (135). Gurley averages 5.6 yards per carry and has 7 runs for over 20 yards. He is also getting action in the pass game with at least 3 catches in each of the last 3 games. There is no threat for Gurley to lose carries to Tre Mason or Benny Cunningham, who played a combined 15 snaps to Gurley’s 58 in week 9. All things considered, week 10 looks like a spot where Gurley could explode for 30+ points.
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
Darren McFadden was the only running back in week 9 to see 100% of his teams backfield touches. He carried the ball 27 times for 117 yards and caught 1 pass for 5 yards, but failed to reach the end zone. I believe this performance is McFadden’s floor going forward, and he is criminally underpriced on both sites. McFadden is seeing similar volume to Mark Ingram, but you can get McFadden at a highly discounted price. Looking solely at the numbers, it appears that the Bucs have a solid run defense allowing only 3.7 YPC, but I believe they are fraudulent. Teams just simply haven’t ran the ball against Tampa Bay. Only 3 times teams have ran the ball over 25 times, one of those being the Texans, when Alfred Blue dropped a line of 31-139-0. The Cowboys have rushed at least 21 times in each game and have had as many as 37 rushing attempts. With Dez Bryant back, defenses have to pay more attention to the outside, opening up more running lanes for DMC. If the ‘boys stay committed to the run, McFadden will exceed his value.
If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:
Over the last 3 weeks, Charles Sims snap % have been 36, 41, and 51, out snapping Doug Martin in week 9. Over that span, he has 12, 9, and 12 touches for at least 65 total yards. Sims has the speed and ability to break a big plays. In week 5 Sims had 4 catches for 85 yards, averaging over 20 YPC. Doug Martin is priced at least 1.3k higher on both sites, but he and Sims are seeing nearly equal workload. Martin has nearly doubled Sims red zone carries with 23, compared to only 11, but Martin only has 2 more scores on the season than Sims. Through 8 games, we have a sample size large enough to make smart decisions based on the data. Sims averages 8.8 PPG on FanDuel and 10.3 on Draftkings, giving him a safe floor for cash games, and his big play ability makes him a sneaky tournament play.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
The general public perception of the Jags is they are a bad football team and you should attack offenses against them. I’m here to say they are a legit contender to win the (horrible) AFC South. Jacksonville leads the league in YPC (3.2) and stuffed Chris Ivory for 26 yards on 23 carries in week 9. Since the public views the Jags as a bad defense, Forsett’s ownership level will be higher than it should be. After losing Steve Smith for the season, the Ravens offense is a mess. I anticipate the Jags stacking the box against Forsett, and making Kamar Aiken or Marlon Brown beat them. My hot take of the week is Forsett puts up a fantasy dud, and the Jaguars beat the Ravens on the road.
