New city, new team, and a new beginning.
Injuries aside, Cecil Shorts’ fantasy work in Jacksonville is vastly underappreciated considering his surrounding cast. And while an argument can be made that with Foster on the sideline, Shorts’ new offense won’t offer him a better outlook, I’ll explain why a Bill O’Brien offense, a smart QB, and an elite – coverage drawing – WR may make Shorts a huge value early this 2015 daily fantasy season.
Player |
DraftKings Salary |
FanDuel Salary |
DK Salary % |
FD Salary % |
% Difference |
| Cecil Shorts | $3,600 | $5,400 | 7.2% | 9.0% | -1.8% |
Reasons to like Cecil:
- He is an underrated route runner, deceptively quick and is able to get separation in and out of breaks on routes.He has never had the luxury of playing on even a half way decent offense. Despite no running game and absolutely atrocious QB’s throwing to him in Jacksonville, he was still able to produce as the ONLY offensive threat on the field and likely gameplans constructed to stop him. To me, that speaks to his underrated ability as a WR.
- Texans were the most “concentrated” passing offense in 2014. With Andre Johnson earning the 2nd highest target share among WR’s at 30.3% and DeAndre Hopkins earning 26.2% target share. As the #2 WR Shorts will become a target monster in the BOB west coast offense.
- I expect Brian Hoyer to win the starting role. Unfortunately (or fortunately) for Shorts, Hoyer will be the the best QB he will have worked with in his four year career. Hoyer is an extremely smart QB who reads a defense quickly and gets the ball out on time. This bodes well for Shorts who will most likely be running an abundance of short to intermediate routes.
- With Hopkins emerging as an elite WR, defensive gameplans will concentrate on slowing him down. This will leave Shorts the ability to matchup against the second best DB each week, and likely a lot of 1 on 1 situations. Look for Shorts to tear up single man coverage, and safety coverage in the slot until D coordinators decide to give him more attention.
Predicting Texans vs. the Chiefs Week 1 Game Script:
- The Texans are currently favorited by one point in this home opener vs. the Chiefs and the Vegas O/U is currently at 41 – one of the lowest totals of week 1.
- This will likely be a defensive struggle, featuring 2 of the best pass rushes in the league vs. very average offenses. And while I expect Chiefs to return to a top defense by midseason, they enter this matchup shorthanded, missing pro bowl DT Dontari Poe to injury and lockdown corner Sean Smith to suspension. The Chiefs will still be able to keep heat on Hoyer, but without Dontari Poe collapsing the pocket from the inside the edge rushers will have a harder time getting to Hoyer. The suspension of Smith also inserts rookie Marcus Peters into a starting role alongside Phillip Gaines. With Arian Foster out and Andre Johnson in Indy, I expect Chiefs DC Bob Sutton will have a plan ready to slow down the Texans biggest offensive threat – Hopkins. Whether it’s rolled coverages or double teams, it will leave Cecil to take advantage of 1 on 1 situations against either Peters or Gaines.
- Conversely, an already outstanding defense in Houston added Wilfork, rookie Kevin Johnson (who has looked great) and a presumably healthy Clowney. I expect Alex Smith to be the first of many QB’s in 2015 to be under fire all day long from an explosive pass rush of Watt and Clowney. It would not surprise me to see Smith turn the ball over a few times – giving Hoyer and Cecil more opportunities to hook up for scores.
- At home in this one, I like the experienced Hoyer to manage the game effectively and be able to take advantage of some of the exotic overly aggressive man pressures from Sutton. Shorts will eat up the man coverage looks – I expect him to have a lot of targets and a lot of YAC.
Conclusion:
- Shorts has a favorable week 1 matchup with a very high ceiling and a low salary. I will likely be drafting Shorts in multiplier contests and especially in a GPP tournament contests. I will likely hold off on using him in 50/50 formats, because I believe there will be safer, more proven plays.
- I’m bullish on Shorts on FanDuel. I think the higher salary of $5,400 will drive down his player usage and make him a nice contrarian play in tournament contests.
- In DraftKings, Cecil’s low salary of $3,600 and high ceiling may make him a bit more popular of a pick. If you are worried about variance, you may need to look elsewhere.
*The shorthanded Chiefs defense may be just enough of a downgrade to make a Hoyer – Shorts stack an interesting play for larger tournaments. It may be risky but it will make your lineup different.
