The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a Defense we recommend:
For my money, this is the clear top DST this week. New England comes into the game undefeated, and a huge home, favorite, currently giving 14.5 points to the Washington Redskins. Again, I like to start with a home, favorite when making decisions about top cash plays. This scenario, historically, has correlated positively for these DSTs.
The Patriots opponent +/- rating of +3.6 (Redskins giving up an additional +3.6 DK points to DSTs) puts them as the 4th best matchup for an opposing defense. I like this stat from Fantasy Labs, because it takes into consideration opponent strength. With a number that high, we should expect the Patriots to have a safe floor this week.
Looking at turnover and takeaway stats, Washington is in the top 10 in interceptions thrown. With all but two coming on the road this year (2 in each of the last 3 road games), I’d expect to see Cousins give the ball to the Patriots this week. Throw in the Patriots are 7th in intercepted passes, it’s almost in there with death and taxes.
Patriots tally the second most sacks this season, even having had their bye week. The reason is not because of an elite pass rush, but opportunity. And for me, this is the most important reason to take the Patriots. Because the Patriots are beating teams early and by a large margin, teams are throwing nearly 40 times a game. This obviously means they have many more opportunities than average to acquire sacks and interceptions. I like the safety of the Patriots in cash, and their ceiling makes them a good tournament play.
Also consider: Broncos
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
In the bull market, I like the Bills at home this week as a favorite. I still believe in this unit as a top tier group and believe the Rex Ryan is still a great defensive mind. They still have Pro Bowl caliber players outside and up front. Coming off of a bye, I expect this group to return to form.
Miami is 5th in total interceptions thrown, and the Bills total the 7th most takeaways this season. A turnover prone team versus a defense with the ability to take the ball away, sign me up.
The Dolphins have a low implied point total, providing a decent floor. In Ryan Tannehill’s matchup this year with the Bills he had a 59 QBR and 3 interceptions. We’ve seen a positive trend up for the Miami offense since the firing of their head coach, but Tannehill has still been turnover prone with 9 interceptions over his last 5.
Also consider: Pittsburgh
If you’re looking for near minimum salary with the potential to out perform the Blue Chip market:
OK, so I know these guys underperformed last week. Maybe that’s an understatement. Regardless, this week provides a better opportunity for the Saints. The Saints are home, favorites, meeting the starting criteria for our analysis.
The Saints are taking on a Titans offensive unit who rank 3rd lowest in Opponent +/- with +3.7 (Fantasy Labs). This group just allowed a below average Houston DST to score 20 last week.
Mariota is likely to return this week, but that doesn’t give much of boost to this Titans squad. Mariota had 5 interceptions in his 3 starts before injury, and as a whole the Titans are giving the ball up 4th most in the league. Saints are still a top 10 unit in takeaways. The Titans are allowing the 3rd most sacks this season, and with a possibly still hobbled Mariota, I don’t see that rate changing anytime soon.
Mix in the fact that the Titans have allowed opposing DSTs double digit performances in all but 1 week, I like the Saints to exceed value at their near minimum price tag.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
The Redskins are the opposite reason of why I can support the Saints. They are facing the toughest offense for a DST. The Patriots are still pretty pissed about the ‘Deflategate’ scandal, and the Redskins look to be the latest victim on their list.
This season DSTs against the Patriots are a combined -5 in points scored. Yes, that is correct. Opposing DSTs are going negative against the Patriots. Outside of a fluky TD from the Colts in primetime a few weeks back, no DST has exceed 3 points scored.
I can’t see this as a play for many, but for you diehard ‘Skins fans looking for salary relief, keep looking. Any value gained from the player you gained from saving on DST, you’ll likely lose it when the Redskins go negative this week.
