The C.R.E.A.M of the crop (the highest salaries). If you’re looking to spend money on a WR we recommend:
We liked Jason Witten at the Blue Chip salary tier too, but the keep away, a slow down game may limit Witten’s opportunities. We also looked at Greg Olson but he’s inconsistent, and facing an improving defense in which Football Outsiders ranks as 4th against TE’s. So, Gates is the best option in the Blue Chip market.
This is absolute chalk for us for the obvious reasons:
– The Raiders have only slowed down one TE this year, Owen Daniels, who hasn’t produced on anyone yet.
– FF Today shows us that the Oak D has allowed TE’s a massive combined statline of 32-388-6 on the year.
– The Chargers can’t run the ball, and may be without target hog Keenan Allen. His 27.5 % of the Chargers’ target share would likely be absorbed by Gates.
– With or without Allen, Gates is a safe bet to get at least 8+ targets. He had 11 in week 5, and 16 in week 6, which gives us reason to believe he has the
highest floor of any TE in week 7
If you can’t afford Gronk, Gates is your next best option in the Blue Chip Market.
“Bull” is inspired by a Bull Market on Wall Street. If you’re looking for a high ceiling with a moderate salary:
We considered Jordan Reed and Walker in this market, but he faces a defense that is one of the toughest on TE’s (including a complete shutdown of Olsen who went 2-28 on them). Delanie Walker has a great matchup, but we gave the slight edge to Watson:
– This game features the highest Vegas over/under on the week at 52 and with Indy favored at -4.5 points the Saints should be playing catch up
– With Brees back, Watson is currently 4th in targets for TE’s including 3 targets of 20+ (Rotowire.com)
– He has 21.4% target share in the redzone the last 2 weeks
This game has a good chance to turn into a track meet and with Indy 21st TE defense ranking on Football Outsiders, I like Watson to be very involved in the action.
We like the matchup for Ebron, but his knee injury scares us. We considered Rudolph against a bad Lions secondary, but with only 28 targets at 4.0 yards per target, his floor is just too low.
As always, Coby is boom or bust, but there is good reason to believe he could have a monster week:
– The juicy 52 point over under and potential shootout a Luck vs Brees matchup may offer
– Football Outsiders ranks the Saints dead last in pass coverage vs TE.
– Despite inconsistent stat lines, Fleener is being used quite a bit (50/80 snaps last week). He should be able to stay on the field more in this one
because Pep opts for more 11/12 personnel grouping when ahead, or in close games.
– The Saints LB’s and safeties struggle in coverage, FF Today shows that the Saints have allowed TE’s 35-486-4 on the year.
With Delvin Breaux and the Saints secondary improving and getting healthier, Fleener may be a mismatch that the Colts attack on Sunday.
“Bear” also draws inspiration from Wall Street. Stay away this week:
The Cowboys do a nice job of underneath coverage limiting TE’s to a combine statline of 20-153-1 on the year (FFtoday). After being given multiple opportunities to make play on Monday night, Donnell disappointed. He dropped a long pass, and caused an Eli interception when he wasn’t aggressive to the ball. We also saw undrafted rookie TE Will Tye have an increased role (26 snaps) on MNF. Tye looks like a much more complete TE, and looked good with the ball in his hands as well. Don’t be surprised to see Tye start to steal Donnell’s role as Donnell continues to prove he is not a complete TE.
